Those Perilous Pesky Predictions (2026)

Those Perilous Pesky Predictions (2026)

I’ve been in the business world for over 40 years. I’ve seen markets rise, fall, and do backflips. If there’s one thing I’ve learned, it’s that “predictors” are often spectacularly wrong.

Before I jump in the fray with my secret sauce signs for the 2026 housing market, the Top 5 unconventional indicators, take a look at some of the past perilous prognosticators! History is full of it and so were some of the people.

• The Rocket Fail: In 1936, The New York Times said rockets could never leave Earth’s atmosphere. Tell that to Elon Musk!
• The Steel Baby: In 1911, Thomas Edison—the lightbulb guy!—said babies in the 21st century would be rocked in steel cradles. Soooo cozy and cuddly!
• The Giant Women: In 1950, Associated Press writer Dorothy Roe predicted every woman would be six feet tall by the year 2000. Tall is the new slim!
• The Musical Devil: John Philip Sousa, the celebrated composer, thought recorded music would end the development of music creators and labeled record players “the thing of the devil.”
• The Indoor Garden Hose: In 1950, an editor at the NY Times thought we’d clean our houses by just spraying a water hose inside and letting it drain through a hole in the floor. That would be a whole new wrinkle in house staging!
• The Boiler Suit: In 1922, Archibald Low predicted we’d all wear metal-lined “boiler suits” and wouldn’t need those “germ collector” mustaches anymore because men would no longer drink water by 2025. That might have helped with the drought come to think of it.

Now, back to me and my non-traditional forecasting! In a climate where everyone is shouting about interest rates and “housing market doom,” I’m here to tell you that the market is still working but just in slow motion. If you want to know when the market is really going to speed up in 2026, you may want to keep reading.

My Top 5 “Unconventional” Indicators for 2026

While the “talking heads” on You Tube focus on the bank, I want you to include a watchful eye on these five things. When there is movement, it might be time to speed up your timeline for buying or selling.

• Top 5 Unconventional Indicator #1 – The Gas Station Sign

If you see gas prices drop significantly and stay down during a tough economy, get your packing boxes ready. Lower costs at the pump mean people have more “walking-around money,” and that eventually leads to moving vans. This one is already trending.

• Top 5 Unconventional Indicator #2 – The Toaster Test

The appliance market usually grows slowly. If the volume of new fridges and ovens jumps by more than 1.0% in a single year, that’s a huge signal. People don’t buy a new dishwasher if they plan on leaving a house empty; they buy them when they are nesting or prepping to sell. The current 2026 anticipation is right at 1% so we’re close.

• Top 5 Unconventional Indicator #3 – The Church Pew Factor

When times get confusing, people head to church more often. An increase in the frequency of church attendance usually points to a return to traditional family values. Strong families are the backbone of the housing market. Barna research in 2025 indicates this is already trending among Gen Z and Millennials. Another great sign…and not just for the housing market.

• Top 5 Unconventional Indicator #4 – Wine Country Happy Hour Signal

Now I’m not saying anyone should drink but do watch the activity in the Temecula Wine Country. When more people return to happy hour at our beautiful wineries and are socially sharing a drink more often, it means they are feeling confident and social. Cheers!

• Top 5 Unconventional Indicator #5 – The “Horse Trader” Secret

This one is my favorite because it’s local: watch the Temecula area stables! If equestrian winter boarding increases by 1% or more, it’s a sign of “old money” and luxury spending moving around. It’s a niche signal, but it’s often the first domino to fall before the rest of the real estate market wakes up.

Who Cares?!

You won’t hear these tips from your local bank lender. Sure, I have all the fancy financial charts too. Like the fact that commercial developers are beginning to move on their projects (true) and personal debt and bankruptcy rates are beginning to decline (also true), but these “human” indicators often tell the story months before the official stats do.

Like the guys who predicted we’d be wearing metal suits, I might get a few things wrong—but after 40 years, my track record for getting you from where you are to where you want to be is pretty tough to beat.